PE deal flow: the three numbers worth reporting, and the one everybody reports instead

PE deal flow is reported as a count because a count is easy to produce and flattering to quote. Two hundred opportunities seen sounds like a fund with reach, and it is entirely consistent with a fund seeing two hundred of the wrong things. Three other numbers actually describe the front of the funnel, and one of them is uncomfortable enough at most funds that it is worth reading for that reason alone.

Number one: the qualification rate

What share of what arrives is worth a real look. A fund seeing two hundred companies of which eight qualify has a targeting problem that more volume makes worse, because associate screening time is the scarce resource. Volume without this number is a cost presented as an asset.

Number two: time to a decision, which is the uncomfortable one

How long an opportunity sits between arriving and getting an answer. Long dwell times lose competitive processes and, more expensively, lose the introducer's willingness to send the next one. Most funds have never measured it and most estimates are optimistic by a factor.

Number three: conversion by source

Which channel produced the deals that closed, over a period long enough to mean something. This is the only number that changes how partner time is allocated, and it needs one field recorded at entry rather than any new system.

What the count is actually for

Comparing yourself to yourself over time, and nothing else. A count that rises while the qualification rate falls is a fund working harder for the same result, which is exactly the situation the headline number conceals.

Questions people ask about pe deal flow

Is high deal flow good?

Only with a qualification rate beside it. Two hundred companies of which eight qualify is a targeting problem more volume makes worse.

Which number is hardest to face?

Time to a decision. Most funds have never measured it and most estimates are optimistic by a factor.

What is the count useful for?

Comparing yourself to yourself over time. A rising count with a falling qualification rate is more work for the same result.

Sources

Related answers

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